After what was predicted to be a tight race this Tuesday, presidential candidate Donald Trump will become the 47th president of the United States of America. He won 295 votes in the electoral college, compared to Kamala Harris’s 226. However, Trump’s marked victory came as somewhat of a surprise to citizens, considering that many polls indicated it would be much closer.
According to a graph released by ABC, he won by a margin 2-4% higher than expected in swing states Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada. In some states the discrepancies were even greater; according to the BBC, in Florida Trump defeated Harris by a margin of 13%, rather than the 5% indicated by opinion polls.
Michael Bailey, a professor at Georgetown University, told BBC that believes this may be due to errors in the methodology of pollsters. He believes that the formulas applied to the polls relied too heavily on past election results. Whether via online polls or calls, the pollsters must assume a certain demographic is answering, and apply previous statistics in an attempt to compensate for that. But these statistics are flawed, and under anticipated Trump’s sway over young voters.
According to CNN, this was a momentous comeback for Trump, especially considering his two impeachments, criminal charges and multiple assassination attempts.
His success has left America surprised, and anticipating the potentially monumental effects that he might have on the U.S. government, America as a whole, and even the world.